The characteristics of sea-level change in the China Sea and its vicinity are studied by combining TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P), Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3 altimeter data. First, the sea-surface height is computed by using monthly data via collinear adjustment, regional selection, and crossover adjustment. The sea-level anomaly (SLA) from October 1992 to July 2017 is calculated based on the difference that is obtained by the value derived from the inverse distance weighting method to interpolate the CNES_CLS15 model value at a normal point. By analyzing the satellite data at the same time in orbit, three mean bias groups over the China Sea and its vicinity are obtained: the difference between T/P and Jason-1 is ??11.76 cm, the difference between Jason-1 and Jason-2 is 9.6 cm, and the difference between Jason-2 and Jason-3 is 2.42 cm. To establish an SLA series for 25 years in the study area, the SLAs are corrected. Mean rate of sea-level rise of the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea of 4.87 mm/a, 2.68 mm/a, 2.88 mm/a, and 4.67 mm/a, respectively, is found by analyzing the series of SLAs. 相似文献
In organic-rich gas shales, clay minerals and organic matter (OM) have significant influences on the origin, preservation, and production of shale gas. Because of the substantial role of nanoscale pores in the generation, storage, and seepage of shale gas, we examined the effects of clay minerals and OM on nanoscale pore distribution characteristics in Lower Paleozoic shale gas reservoirs. Using the Niutitang and Longmaxi shales as examples, we determined the effects of clay minerals and OM on pores through sedimentation experiments. Field emission–scanning electron microscopy combined with low-pressure N2 adsorption of the samples before and after sedimentation showed significant differences in pore location and pore size distribution between the Niutitang and Longmaxi shales. Nanoscale pores mostly existed in OM in the Longmaxi shale and in clay minerals or OM–clay composites in the Niutitang shale. The distribution differences were attributed largely to variability in thermal evolution and tectonic development and might account for the difference in gas-bearing capacity between the Niutitang and Longmaxi reservoirs. In the nanoscale range, mesopores accounted for 61–76% of total nanoscale pore volume. Considerably developed nanoscale pores in OM were distributed in a broad size range in the Longmaxi shale, which led to good pore connectivity and gas production. Numerous narrow pores (i.e., pores?<?20 nm) in OM–clay composites were found in the Niutitang shale, and might account for this shale’s poor pore connectivity and low gas production efficiency. Enhancing the connectivity of the mesopores (especially pores?<?20 nm and those developed in OM–clay composites) might be the key to improving development of the Niutitang shale. The findings provide new insight into the formation and evolutionary mechanism of nanoscale pores developed in OM and clay minerals. 相似文献
Some studies suggest that creep parameters should be determined using a greater quantity of creep test data to provide more reliable prediction regarding the deformation of soft soils. This study aims to investigate the effect of loading duration on model updating. One‐dimensional consolidation data of intact Vanttila clay under different loading durations collected from the literature is used for demonstration. The Bayesian probabilistic method is used to identify all unknown parameters based on the consolidation data during the entire consolidation process, and their uncertainty can be quantified through the obtained posterior probability density functions. Additionally, the optimal models are also determined from among 9 model candidates. The analyses indicate that the optimal models can describe the creep behavior of intact soft soils under different loading durations, and the adopted method can evaluate the effect of loading duration on uncertainty in the creep analysis. The uncertainty of a specific model and its model parameters decreases as more creep data are involved in the updating process, and the updated models that use more creep data can better capture the deformation behavior of an intact sample. The proposed method can provide quantified uncertainty in the process of model updating and assist engineers to decide whether the creep test data are sufficient for the creep analysis. 相似文献
Abrupt climate change has an important impact on sustainable economic and social development, as well as ecosystem. However, it is very difficult to predict abrupt climate changes because the climate system is a complex and nonlinear system. In the present paper, the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) is proposed as a new early warning signal for an abrupt climate change. The performance of NLLE as an early warning signal is first verified by those simulated abrupt changes based on four folding models. That is, NLLE in all experiments showed an almost monotonous increasing trend as a dynamic system approached its tipping point. For a well-studied abrupt climate change in North Pacific in 1976/1977, it is also found that NLLE shows an almost monotonous increasing trend since 1970 which give up to 6 years warning before the abrupt climate change. The limit of the predictability for a nonlinear dynamic system can be quantitatively estimated by NLLE, and lager NLLE of the system means less predictability. Therefore, the decreasing predictability may be an effective precursor indicator for abrupt climate change.